Has the Tide Stopped Rising? The Evolution of the Obesity Epidemic by Dr. Paul O'Brien

The folk at the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia are good at counting. It is their job to track the trends in diseases across the United States. They have been focusing on the rising levels of obesity for 50 years now and recently they suggested the peak may be near.

Let’s hope so. Already the level is far too high, with many suffering and many dying. It is spilling over into the healthcare system, generating a major increase in the costs.

The CDC does continuous health surveys across the country which they release every two years. Usually there are more than 8,000 people studied for each report. To work out how many are obese, they actually measure their height and weight and so calculate their body mass index (BMI).

In their latest survey during 2007 – 2008, they found that 33.8% of adults were obese (BMI greater than 30). 33.8%! That means that more than one adult in three has the disease of obesity. A total of 77 million people have a disease. And that is not counting any of the kids - just those over age 20.

The figure shows what has been happening over the past 50 years. The red columns are the obese and the yellow are the overweight and obese combined.

The Rising Tide of Obesity in USA

The earliest measures taken between 1960 and 1962 showed just 13.4% of adults were obese. This didn’t change much over the next twenty years. By 1980 it was still just 14.4%, a mere 1% rise. But then we really got going. By the year 2000, the number had more than doubled to 30.5%. A 1% rise between 1960 and 1980 and then a 16.1% rise from 1980 to 2000. Whatever is going on?

Thankfully, since 2000 there has been a slowing of the trend. In 2008, 33.8% are obese; still going up, but not nearly as fast as before. There is a small sex difference with 35.5% of women and 32.2% of men being over the obese line.

They also look at just how obese the people are becoming. We regard all obesity as a disease but the worse the obesity the worse the disease. Therefore, having a BMI over 30 is bad, over 35 is worse and over 40 is just too dangerous for words. And being overweight is best seen as sitting in the obesity waiting room. You may not get through the door but you are too close for comfort. If you are overweight, get going on those lifestyle changes to bring your weight under control. But if you are obese, you have the problem and you need treatment. Start with the simplest – a change in lifestyle by eating less and doing more. Maybe try appetite controlling drugs and very low energy diets. If these various approaches don’t work, it is time for you to consider gastric banding.

You are not in isolation. Nearly seven out of every ten adults have some degree of problem with their weight. If you take 100 typical adults across the USA today, only 32 of them will be in the normal weight range and 68 will be overweight. Of the overweight, half will be obese. Of the 34 who are obese, 14 will be severely obese (i.e. they have a BMI of more than 35). Of those 14, six will be morbidly obese (BMI >40). The pie chart shows this distribution.

Weight Profile of 100 Typical US Adults

None of us want to be a statistic. We want to be a healthy individual who enjoys life and lives until their grandchildren have grown up. Today is be the first day of the rest of your life. Go for it.

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